By Danielle Tiu
MANILA, Philippines — Another fuel price increase could hit Philippine motorists on Aug. 25 as international crude markets remain volatile amid renewed US-Iran tensions and growing concerns over global oil supplies.
Preliminary MOPS data suggest gasoline prices could increase by P1 to P1.50 per liter, while diesel may see a larger adjustment of P1.75 to P2.25 per liter.
The estimates are based on the first four trading days and are not yet definitive. Oil prices could move significantly during the remaining trading session, meaning the final adjustment could be larger, smaller or turn into a rollback.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas pointed to the expiration of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding in June as one factor behind the latest market uncertainty.
The absence of a broader peace agreement and indications that both parties are preparing for a tougher stance have raised fears of a prolonged crisis, according to Bellas.
At the same time, disruptions to oil shipments through the Black Sea are threatening Russian crude supplies. Traders are also assessing whether Middle Eastern producers can provide enough replacement oil should disruptions persist.
The International Energy Agency has meanwhile lowered its outlook for global oil demand, saying consumption is expected to weaken further in the second half of 2026.
The agency noted that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting supply chains and contributing to uncertainty in international energy markets. It projects global oil demand to decline by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day this year.
Despite the external pressures, the Department of Energy reported that the country’s average fuel inventory stood at 58.34 days of supply as of Aug. 14.
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